Odds for Every Pokemon in 7 km Eggs
An underrated part of the recent Ultra Bonus event rewards added to Pokemon GO is the presence of new Pokemon in the 7 km eggs you can get from receiving gifts from other players on your Friends list. Previously, the only Pokemon to appear in those eggs were Alolan forms of six different characters, which were pretty cool until you got them all — something that didn’t take all that long if you played Pokemon GO regularly and had a decent amount of in-game friends.
The Alolan gang is still present in 7 km eggs, but it’s been joined by other Pokemon previously only available to trainers in specific regions. Tauros, for example, could only be found in North America, so having it in the mix allows non-globetrotting players (which we can assume means most Pokemon GO trainers) the chance to obtain it.
The question is how good are those chances, especially since Niantic also threw a few more Pokemon into the 7 km egg rotation. Specifically, Tangela and Porygon can be found in these eggs, perhaps in preparation for their Gen 4 eveolutions, which many people expect to be added to the game in the coming months. All told, there are now 12 different Pokemon you might hatch from a 7 km egg.
Thankfully, instead of merely guessing how common each character is, The Silph Road has already crowdsourced some research on hatch rates. By taking reports on more than 2500 7 km eggs hatched since new Pokemon were added to them, the group has estimated odds for finding each one. Let’s go through them group by group:
Pokemon GO 7 km Eggs Hatch Odds
- Alolan Diglett: 15 percent
- Alolan Meowth: 15 percent
- Alolan Sandshrew: 15 percent
- Alolan Geodude: 11.5 percent
- Alolan Vulpix: 11.5 percent
- Alolan Grimer: 7.5 percent
As you can see, the Alolan forms are still the most likely Pokemon to emerge from any 7 km egg you hatch, as around three out of every four eggs will have one on average. We’re not sure what the devs have against poor Grimer, but hey.
Pokemon With Gen 4 Evolutions
- Porygon: 6.25 percent
- Tangela: 6.25 percent
Some trainers might be disappointed to see one of these Pokemon pop out of one in every eight 7 km eggs. However, if the consensus opinion is right about their Gen 4 evolutions coming to Pokemon GO in the near future, this could turn out to be beneficial, as hatching more of them will provide a better supply of candy than simply hoping to encounter more of them in the wild.
- Kangaskhan: 4 percent
- Tauros: 4 percent
- Farfetch’d: 2.25 percent
- Mr. Mime: 2.25 percent
At least Niantic is not hiding the truth about how rare these characters are, tweeting out exactly that recently. The Silph Road’s research, though, reinforces how the odds are against finding a Farfetch’d or Mr. Mime, at less than 3 percent per egg.
Since these odds are per egg, they are of course independent of each other (remember to pay attention in your statistics classes, kids!), so even if you hatch 300 of the 7 km eggs, there’s no guarantee you will end up with all of them. Still, the numbers here suggest that if you hatch 50 eggs, you will have a decent shot at finding at least one of every Pokemon available, including the rarest regional ones.
Then again, at 7 km each, that’s 350 km of walking, unless you use Super Incubators or take advantage of events where hatching is sped up. Come to think of it, those aren’t bad tips if finding the regional Pokemon is a priority for you. But even if it takes a while, it’s nice to know that other Pokemon besides the Alolan forms are available, and you can get started on discovering the others right away.